VPs: Bring it On

Tonight's VP debate was very interesting in many ways. I will admit to screaming a few times at the tv screen when ridiculous things were said and for those interested in the score: ridiculous things said by Biden two, ridiculous things said by Palin six. But taking the debate as a whole, there were three aspects that stand out to me and will probably be what most people and media remember from this debate. 

First, Palin was relatively good and much better than she has been in the media interviews. This was hands down the best she has done since her speech at the republican national convention. She, for the most part, was able to answer questions without going into long stories that led to nowhere and she spoke in simple terms. More importantly, she showed herself to be a Washington outsider, which is clearly how the McCain campaign wants her seen. 

Second, don't like the question? Its cool, just answer the question you made up in your head. At two points in the debate Palin either did not understand the question or misheard it because she provided speech that never approached an answer to the question posed. The first time was when the moderator asked her whether she believed there should ever be an instance in which the United States should use nuclear weapons. Rather than answer this question, Palin instead talked about how we should stop nuclear proliferation. I agree with her. Nuclear proliferation is an important issue and we should stop it, but the question was asking about when she thought the United States should use nuclear weapons. The goal of these types of questions is to try to establish how risk adverse a candidate is in foreign affairs. If you say never, then you are very risk adverse, if you say only if attacked by nuclear weapons, you are considered rational, and if you say always, you are nuts. Clearly, this is an oversimplification, but the basic idea is that your answer to this question is supposed to be a kind of bellwether to how you approach crises. Do you panic? Do you over-react? Do you under-react? Are you decisive? Do you Plan? etc. Palin completely avoided this softball question and missed another opportunity to show that she might actually be competent in some foreign affairs issues. 

The second question that Palin completely disregarded is the standard job interview question: What is your greatest weakness? Instead of saying that she might have a weakness, she instead talked about all her strengths. From someone who used to do a lot of job interviewing, when I have a job candidate not answer a direct question like that it immediately tells me one or both of the following about the person. One, this person has a real weakness that he doesn't want me to know or two this person is unable to analyze himself, which means that he will be very difficult to work with because he will believe he is always right. Either way, whenever I had a candidate not answer that question it usually ended the chance that person had of getting the job. Unlike Palin, Biden made sure he answered this question and I think it will payoff because beyond my own feelings about this question, most people get annoyed when people pretend they have no weaknesses. 

The third memorable aspect of the debate were two responses delivered by Biden. The first was his comparison of McCain's health care tax credit as the ultimate bridge to nowhere. It was such a well timed response that even the audience and the moderator could not help but laugh. I think it spoke volumes to what people think about that particular policy proposal by the McCain-Palin ticket. The second aspect was Biden's response on the kitchen table issues. His response here was incredible and possibly one of the best moments in recent debate history. After being accused of being out of touch by Palin in a very gimmicky and winking manner, Biden told a story about his family that was deep, sincere, emotional, intense and real. I don't think he actually cried, but he came across as really understanding what people are going through. This, I think more than anything else this is what will be remembered from this debate. He took her attack and made her look small and childish, while he displayed deep empathy for being in tough positions. 

Overall, I think the debate went slightly to Biden, but in the end nothing happened tonight that should shift voters. While this last note may be lost on most voters Palin's closing statement was probably the sign that the McCain-Palin ticket is in trouble. She attempted to present voters with a clear division of which ticket to choose in Novemeber. The key aspect of this type of tacit is that you never say which ticket you are discribing. The key is to have the voter associate everything postive you are saying with your ticket and everything negative with the opponents. The problem that she had though is all of the McCain-Palin ticket's ideas that resonate with voters are issues they borrowed from Obama. Thus, when she listed the choices, it sounded like she was saying you can vote for the change ticket (Obama-Biden) or more failed policies and half baked ideas (McCain-Palin). It could just be me, but her closing statment seemed to confirm to me, who is winning control of the messages of this campaign.

Is the Tide Turning?

Quick post tonight, as with Hurricane Ike going full force there is not much election coverage.  Over the last few days an interesting set of events has been set in motion that may set the stage for a poll reversal this week. 

The first is that, unlike the relatively unsubstantiated attacks that were leveled at Palin, the media has actually started to find cracks in the Palin armor that cannot be whisked away. Neither crack is that large, but both highlight an odd trend on the McCain/Palin ticket: to lie about information that can easily be fact checked. 

One, claimed earlier in the week, is that Palin had visited Alaska troops in Iraq. This has been disproved quite easily by the media, who got access to her travel record. Another is her claim that she brought in both republican and democrats to work in the executive branch in Alaska when she was elected Governor. The New York Times is reporting that this claim is false and that the appointment and civil service records show otherwise.

The other event is that the Obama campaign has learned that it needs to stop going after Palin, as it makes her an issue. Instead they have returned to attacking McCain. In my opinion this is the correct course of action. Palin appears vastly more popular than McCain. Obama's best bet is remind voters that they aren't voting for Palin, but McCain. In addition, McCain has a much longer record to defend, which clearly shows it is hard for him to be a candidate for change. Remember, before Palin came on the ticket, people were not excited about McCain. This is probably still true and Obama needs to remind them who is running for president on the republican side.

Lastly, as a poll update, the numbers still look terrible for Obama in both national polls and key swing states. We still have a long time to go, but if we don't start to see some halting to the McCain gains in swing states by the end of the week it may be time to start getting concerned. 

Together Forever?

Parting ways can be difficult, which would be one explanation for why McCain and Palin are still campaigning together now that the convention is behind us. That explanation would be wrong, but it makes for a nice lead in for today’s post.   

Traditionally, after the conventions, the newly foraged party candidates for President and Vice President head off and do about 3-4 days of heavy campaigning together. After that, they bid each other ado and separate. The logic in separating is that two people can cover far more ground than a single person, and since a party ticket is usually designed to appeal to different types of voters, the splitting of the two candidates allows each to go and campaign separately to court these voters. It is not unusual for the ticket-mates to meet back together for large events, big fundraises, or meet for rallies in swing states, but generally each will spend the month of September campaigning alone.   

Obama and Biden have followed this traditional form to the letter. After the convention, the two drew huge crowds at several joint events and have since separated to court voters individually.  Since separating, Obama and Biden have done several big events together, but by and large they have been keeping separate travel schedules, events, and hotels.   

Over on the republican side, the original plan coming out of the convention was for something very similar for McCain and Palin. They would do a few events together and then separate to hit their respective bases of support. However, this has not occurred. Rather, they have repeatedly added joint events and have not really separated yet (take today’s joint campaign stop in northern VA).   

The pundits have noticed this occurrence, but have attributed it to the fact that when McCain was campaigning alone before the convention, he was pulling crowds in the 100s, whereas after the convention, he and Palin together have been attracting thousands. Thus, the two have not split yet because they want to ride the wave.   

While there is clearly merit in this explanation, I have trouble with it because logically it doesn’t make sense. It is not the fact that they are campaigning together that is drawing larger crowds, but that the republican convention really energized republicans. So whereas the support for McCain was luke-warm before the convention, that indifferent sentiment has been completely replaced by an air of excitement and enthusiasm.   

Now some will claim that if Palin wasn’t with him, he wouldn’t get the crowds. So what? If Palin is the reason they are getting crowds, then her campaigning on her own would still pull the large crowds and McCain could be working a different, if smaller, group of people at the same time. To me, the republicans’ strategy here makes no sense if the explanation is to ride the Palin wave to bigger crowds for McCain.

However, there are two alternative hypotheses that do explain why the republicans have not yet shifted to the split campaigning. The first is that the McCain staff is very afraid that if they separate, Palin will pull more people to her events than McCain will to his. Such an event would clearly be covered in the media and make McCain look weak. Obviously, the VP candidate should not pull more than the boss.   

The second alternative hypothesis is that the McCain camp is afraid to have Palin campaign by herself on the national stage at this point. It is clear that she can be very powerful when she is protected and in a controlled environment, but if she is on her own at her own events, the McCain campaign will have little control over what she says or how she answers questions.   

In both cases, these alternative hypotheses are good news for Obama. The longer McCain and Palin campaign together, the more ground they will lose as Obama and Biden each individually reach out to voters. Plus, McCain and Palin will have to separate at some point, and in terms of having something embarrassing happen, the farther it is from November 4th, the better off it will be for the campaign that makes the mistake.     

The Power of Lipstick

Well who would have thought that lipstick on a pig would cause such a ruckus? For those who are not following the constant news feed of the campaign, here is the back-story before we get into some analysis.   

In a recent speech (I believe it was yesterday), Obama said that McCain’s economic plan is like putting lipstick on a pig. The phrase was supposed to imply that one cannot make a bad plan better by simply dressing it up. Thus, Obama saying McCain’s economic plan was like putting lipstick on a pig was the equivalent of saying that McCain’s economic plan is worthless and tries to fix the economy by making only cosmetic changes.   

Obama’s comments immediately caused outrange in the McCain/Palin camp, but not exactly as one might expect. Rather than being upset that his economic plan was called into question, McCain responded that Obama’s remarks were an unjustified sexist attack on Palin.  

The connection, for those who are lost and wondering why the McCain campaign would react the way it did, is that during Palin’s acceptance speech, she said that the difference between a pit bull and a hockey mom is that one wears lipstick. Thus, the McCain/Palin ticket reacted believing that the swipe was at Palin and not the economic plan.   

It will never be known what Obama intended, but to be honest, whether it was planned or not, the move by Obama was absolutely brilliant. Since the end of the republican convention, all that has been talked about is Palin and how strong she is, what a good selection she was, etc. She has been caught in a very powerful and positive media cycle. Since there hasn’t been anything else for the media to really cover since her speech, she has stayed in the news. However, McCain’s response seems to have ended that by giving the media something new to cover.   

Now, you might ask, why is this comment by Obama good? Because McCain’s response is completely irrational based on what was said. Palin’s name was never mentioned and Obama was talking about economic plans. It shows that McCain can’t talk about real issues, but would rather talk about unrelated aspects of the campaign. It feeds into the image of the republicans that the democrats are trying to build: republicans are out of touch, they have no new ideas, and they can only win by relying on platitudes.   

Luckily for Obama, McCain took the bait, and the resulting news cycle has done two important things. First, the post-convention positive coverage of Plain has ended. This is possibly the most important change the democrats could hope to effectuate. They had to find a way to shift the focus without attacking Palin directly because doing so would just add to the media frenzy. Second, they were able to once again show that McCain/Palin would rather talk about lipstick than real issues. Obama attacks an economic plan and McCain responds by calling the attack sexist. I think I can see the campaign ad already.   

Clearly, this is not going to be remembered as a key turning point in the election, and for the vast majority of people, it will remain completely unknown. But in reality, this little comment has once again shifted media focus back to Obama and gotten Palin’s name out of the positive news cycle. For this to really be a turning point, Obama now needs to capitalize on McCain’s mistake and really drive home that McCain would rather talk about lipstick than issues that matter to Joe America.   

As one final note on this story, McCain’s response becomes even more bizarre when you take into account that he was actually the first person in this election to make the comment that someone’s ideas were like putting lipstick on a pig. He was referring to a plan by Hillary Clinton in the early primaries. Don’t think that that aspect won’t make it into the news cycle as this story passes. 

Republican Contradictions

McCain praises himself as a maverick who bucks his party, the democrats, and the "Washington" establishment even though he has been a part of the Republican and Washington establishment for over two decades. While his Maverick title may have made sense in 2000, in the last eight years, McCain has not only been a loyal member of the Bush Republican party, but in many way he defined it. In his acceptance speech for his party nomination for president of the United States he spoke openly of his experiences during Vietnam to highlight how he realized how is maverick tendencies had got him in trouble. Yet this is the very quality he seeks to demonstrate to the American people as necessary to bring "real change" to Washington.

It appears that the the McCain strategy is that Americans should vote for him because we can trust him because he represents "real" change. He, a Washington insider for over 20 years, makes his platform on virtually all of the same policies that Republican's have run on for decades and claims that he and his party can reform Washington from the people who created a mess in Washington - which is those very same people and those very same policies.

For the past six months McCain's campaign has been harping on the lack of experience as the reason why Obama is unqualified to be president. Yet McCain decided to pick a running mate with little to no experience. His campaign has pointed out that Obama had no executive experience and highlighted the almost two years Palin has as a Governor. Some Republicans have even stated she has more executive experience than Biden as he has only served in the Senate, overlooking the fact that this would mean she also has more experience than McCain, who has also only held office in the Senate. According to Palin and the McCain campaign they are going to change Washington, yet she is unwilling or unable to participate in an interview and discuss exactly what her and McCain's plans are for the country beyond generic rhetoric.

The biggest contradiction, as it appeared to me during his speech, was John McCain's accusation of Democrats as the "me first, country second crowd". Yet at the same time he asks for more tax cuts, despite a large national debt and an overstrecthed military, among other economic issues (and the argument for tax cuts is not based on economics but on fairness). According to an analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, which analysed both Obama's and McCain's tax proposals, McCain's tax proposal leaves little relief for working class Americans in terms of after tax income compared to those in the highest marginal incomes.


A majority of the money that would be spent on the tax cuts (around 51%) would go to those in the $65,000 to $139,000 income range. However, the primary benefactors of after tax income increases will be the upper middle class and the upper class - the top one fifth would get the largest percentage increase in income at over 6% and the top one percent would get nearly a 10% increase, while those in the lowest income range would recieve a less than 1% increase in after tax income and the next two income brackets recieve around a 3% increase respectively. To put this in perpsective, according the U.S Census Bureau the current income quintiles (fifths) range as follows: Botttom 1/5th $0-$20,300, 2/5th $20,300-$39,100, 3/5 $39,100-$62,000, 4/5th $62,000-$100,000, top 5/5th $100,000 and over, top 5% (top 1/20th) $177,000 and over.

The Tax Policy Center fairly points out that neither candidates plan would create significant increases in economic growth without either spending cuts or, more suprisingly, tax increases (probably assuming greater government expenditures and a lower deficit level). What appears as a contradiction to me is the idea that those who benefit the most from our system of government and society would claim to put the country first, but then demand that they pay less for the benefits they have recieved (and a lowering of their tax burden corresponds to an increased tax burden on the lower and middle classes which are the backbone of both the workforce and the military).

Much of my criticism may be unfair and the result of personal bias, but if McCain and Palin would put out some specific and concete policy porposals rather than running on slogans and rhetoric intended to inflame passions (it inflames as much passion on the left as it does the right, so the benefit of their strategy may be dubious) it would be possible to make a fairer assesment of what a McCain-Palin administration would be like and their campaign would not seem so full of contradictions.

Palin's Speech

Today will hopefully mark the last time I have a post about Palin for awhile. Personally I am kind of tired reading about her as I don't think all the attacks on her have been fair, nor in the end do I think she will actually matter when people go into the voting booth. When push comes to shove, the vast majority of people will vote for the name on the top of the ticket when they pull the lever (punch the chad, push the electronic check mark box, or how ever you vote in your state). 

I have just finished watching Palin's speech and my initial reaction is mixed. Overall, I think she delivered her speech well, there were no real speaking mistakes, and it only seemed one time that she went off script with telling a joke about the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull (the punchline is that hockey moms wear lipstick). I am not sure how those types of jokes play in small towns in America, but I am willing to guess that the McCain campaign advisers will make sure we don't see that again from her. 

The positives of speech were that she attempted to clearly define who she is, how she got to where she is today, and how her story is a lot like Obama's in that she started small and is now in the big time. I think it is hard to question that she hit that part out of the park. She also clearly showed herself to be the champion of family values and not just talking the talk, but walking the walk on social conservative issues by trolling her family in front of the crowd. 

Where I think mistakes were made was in making her the attack dog. Her speech was incredibly negative and loaded with personal attacks on Obama, as opposed to attacks on his ideas/polices. I was keeping rough track during her speech and I counted 14 interruptions when the audience gave supportive boos to her remarks versus 11 cheering interruptions. While the speech was strong in many ways, it was extremely negative and I think incorrectly frames her in negative terms. If the goal of having her on the ticket was that she is like your next door neighbor and can pick off independents, why would you have her give a speech that was very hostile, negative, and derisive? Was a speech like that needed? Absoultely. But I am surprised they had Palin give it at the same time that she is introducing and defining herself to the public. 

I am not saying that Obama and Biden didn't take their shots at McCain. However, their speeches in almost all cases said, I respect McCain, just not his ideas. This type of civility was completely lacking in Palin's speech and for me and was the most disappointing part. Her speech demonstrated that republicans want to win the election by dividing the country, where as the democrats want to win by uniting. I know that this is a vast and unfounded generalization, but the tones of the speeches so far between the two conventions seem to fall that way. 

In the morning, the fact that is going to be most remembered of Palin's speech is that she aggressively attacked Obama personally. Perhaps she felt that she had to show she had a tough side based on the media backlash she has received. Maybe she was right and that this will get the critics off her back. But, I don't think the McCain/Palin ticket can win by running on a platform of "we are not Obama" or "Obama is not good". To win a presidential election you need to define yourself independently of your opponent, not merely attack your opponent and I feel Palin did little of that tonight. 

In the end, I think Palin did fine tonight, but if this marks the tone of how she will campaign, I think she will find little support from independents or disappointed Hillary supporters because she is doing little to reach out to them. Instead of trying to reach across the aisle, tonight was a speech that widened the divide. Palin proved she can be tough, but she did it at the expense of showing she could be a uniter, which I think the republicans are going to need if they are going to win in November. 

Palin Pros & Cons

John McCain's pick of Governor Palin may have created a brief sensation, but the lingering question is will it last. The clear reason for this pick, as even Republican pundits admit it is a very cynical political choice (especially for John McCain), is to gain some of the disaffected Hillary supporters. Simultaneously, McCain hopes to quiet some concerns Christian conservatives have with him, as Palin is opposed to any form of abortion and has advocated teaching creationism in schools.

McCain may very well pick up some Hillary supporters, and the right wing of the Republican Party may be put somewhat at ease, but are the supposed advantages Palin brings worth it? McCain may lose more credibility as a maverick, despite what his campaign describes as a maverick decision, for picking an underqualified vice presidential candidate with the clear intent of making a political play for disaffected women who supported Hillary. The move does not exactly excude the mantra of the "Straight Talk Express", if anything it sends the message of a desperate political move to gain votes.

McCain also now has great difficulty with the only attack on Obama that had real resonance - lack of experience. Even worse for McCain's campaign, Obama picked the most qualified Vice Presidential candidate with Biden right before McCain picked one of the least experienced candidates. Undoubtably McCain's campaign will keep at the experience issue, but it will be much more difficult with Palin being his choice, and Biden as Obama's.

Republicans are saying the party is excited and ready to go, but this doesn't seem to show much at their convention, which is already composed of the base of the party and elected officials. Even if there is a great deal of excitement, as they insist there is, they must maintain it until November while avoiding any gaffes or major mistakes on the part of the Governor who has little experience on the national media stage.

Polling after the Republican Convention will tell whether there is any immediate impact of the Palin decision, and whether McCain's choice was worth the sacrifice.