Debate Part II: Rumble in Tennessee

Last night featured the second debate between Obama and McCain and although there has been a recent sharpening of attacks in the last few days between these candidates, last night was quite civil. Overall, we saw a repeating of a lot of the same positions and attacks that we saw in the first debate. However, there were several things that I think are important to note as we evaluate this debate. 

First, McCain clearly was doing well early on. The first two questions he hit out of the park. Even though his idea of having the government buy and renegotiate mortgages is already in the current bailout plan that passed last week, his presentation of it was well timed and delivered well. Also, it is interesting that if you had asked an alien to pick which party McCain was from based on those comments, I don't think you would have heard republican in response. This is important because it implies to win, McCain has to, in essence, have anti-republican proposals. 

However, that is where the good performance stopped for McCain. For the rest of the debate Obama consistently provided better answers to questions and rebuttals to attacks. The basic problem McCain faces is that even though he is not your typical republican, he is still tied to that party which, rightly or wrongly, is at the moment being held responsible for causing the current recession. 

Beyond what they said, McCain did three things during last night's debate that struck me as odd, and will probably be what most people will remember from this debate. First, when McCain was speaking Obama sat on his chair and appeared to be listening intently to what McCain had to say. He showed him respect and courtesy. But when Obama was speaking, McCain was walking around and was almost never facing Obama when he was speaking. His moving around was constantly picked up by the cameras. While I do not think McCain intended to be seen, his moving around appeared disrespectful. The tacit feeling that came across was that Obama was someone who listened to ideas, even ones he doesn't agree with, while McCain is only interested in giving his opinion and not what others have to say. I don't think this is actually true, but their nonspeaking actions seemed to communicate this last night.

Second, during Obama's follow up to McCain's attack of him on Afghanistan, McCain interrupted him to say "thanks" in response to a nice comment Obama was making about McCain, but this backfired in two ways. First, Obama was making a serious comment while McCain's interruption looked like he was looking for a laugh. His interruption made Obama look presidential since Obama ignored the interruption and continued in the same tone. Second, Obama was doing a very normal debate technique where you turn a complement into an attack. The result here was that McCain actually said "thanks" right as Obama was delivering the attack. So beyond the fact that McCain appeared rude for interrupting Obama, the timing of the events made it appear as if McCain was saying thanks and agreeing with Obama's attack. 

Third, during one of McCain's attacks on Obama he said that voters should just compare their records in deciding who to vote for. McCain said you have me or (and, then pointing at Obama) "that one". I am not sure what he was going for here, but that was about as close to a gaff as we we had last night. It was a very derisive attack that did not play well with voters in the room and probably not at home either. If you watch the playback of the debate when McCain makes that comment you seen some very uncomfortable shifting and body language by many of the voters in the town hall room. 

Overall, last night was a pretty clear victory for Obama in terms of both the information he spoke as well as how he carried himself throughout the debate. As a final example of how McCain misfired last night was after the debate. Typically at town hall debate candidates go around and talk to the uncommitted votes there, pose for pictures, etc. McCain did this for about 5 min and then left the room. Obama continued to chat with voters and pose for pictures. All of this was captured on TV before the commentators started their analysis. McCain yield a room of uncommitted voters to Obama and the public got to watch how they all responded to Obama, while McCain was no where to be found. This was the icing on the cake and spoke volumes regarding how the campaign is going.  

The Debate

So I apologize for not having a post up for a few days. Life has been a little hectic, but hopefully things will slow down just a tad in the near future.    

Last night featured the first of three presidential debates that are going to take place over the next several weeks (there will also be one vice presidential debate this coming Thursday). After some drama created by McCain stating that he may not attend the debate because of the need for him to be on the hill to get a compromise on the bail out bill, the debate itself went rather well for both candidates. The reason for this is that both candidates had different objectives coming into this debate and that made the result, in some ways, a non-zero sum game (i.e. that it was possible for both candidates to win and no one to lose).    

For Obama, success in the first debate was in accomplishing mainly four things: 1) being gaff free; 2) relaying that he is the candidate for change; 3) showing himself to be rational, level headed, and even keeled, while not coming across as aloof; and 4) portraying readiness to president. Obama clearly accomplished all four of these tasks by not getting frustrated when McCain made attacks and coolly refuting the claims made against him with well constructed, but simple, explanations. At no time last night did Obama become flustered and, in fact, many of his prepared responses and exchanges with McCain showed that he is deeply knowledgeable about key economic and foreign affairs issues. 

Obama's theme of the night seemed to be that we have had 8 years of impulsive executive leadership based on feelings and emotion. This leadership style lead us to the current crises we now face, and McCain embodies more of this style of leadership, while I (Obama) am collected, rational, and deliberate.    

As for McCain, success for him last night was also based on mainly accomplishing four things: 1) being gaff-free; 2) distancing himself from Bush on the economy and spending; 3) showing himself to be the candidate who could actually bring change to Washington; and 4) maintaining vigor and energy to assuage fears that his age is an issue. I think McCain pretty much accomplished all of his tasks as well. McCain drove home repeatedly that he is against spending and that he has a record to prove that he can reform Washington. His remarks were well animated  with a great deal of enthusiasm. 

In examining McCain's message of the night, it seemed to be that the voters should trust him on foreign affairs because he has been on the ground and he has surveyed the terrain on which we are going to fight, while Obama “doesn't get it” because he hasn't been there. This was an interesting attack strategy by McCain. I think it would have been very effective if Obama hadn't demonstrated each time that even though his feet may not have been on the ground, he had a very accurate picture of what needed to be done. However, I do think that this type of attack by McCain should play well with the Republican base, so I am sure we will see it used again and again.    

Thus, since both candidates accomplished what they set out to do, in some ways this debate was a win-win for both candidates. One thing to note is that unlike in recent past debates, such as Bush vs. Gore or Bush vs. Kerry, the candidates had to do a lot less to differentiate themselves on the economy and foreign affairs issues. Polls show that not only do voters recognize that Obama and McCain have different views on these issues, but approximately 65% can correctly place the candidates and their views together and provide at least one major difference between them. Thus, I think we saw a lot less time being spent on trying to say “here is how I am different from my opponent” and more time spent saying “this is why I am right.”    

The key aspect to remember of any debate, however, is that unless someone makes a gaff, very few people actually remember what was said. Rather, what people take away from presidential debates are feelings about the candidates and what the candidates represent. It is in this category that I think the edge went to Obama. It was clear from the debate last night that both candidates are for change. But, as we saw at the conventions, McCain is for change by fighting and defeating those who are resistant to change; he said he would be the sheriff of spending, veto every spending bill he deems no good, and make Washington change by bringing the fight to them. By contrast, Obama is for change by bring people together to work out differences and make compromises; he repeatedly stated that he understands that there are deep divisions, but that the president's job is to bridge these gaps, not to increase them. History has clearly shown that both strategies can be effective in the right situation.   

However, in today's political climate, the idea that voters want more division and fighting in politics seems silly. We have had 8 years of very derisive politics, and the situation created by the Bush era is unlikely to be fixed by the next president simply wielding a big stick. Rather, it is going to take carrots and compromise to really bring change to Washington. This notion of how to bring change is in many ways really the heart of the election. It could just be me, but my gut tells me at this decision node, voters don't want change through force, but through reconciliation that brings people together.    

Traditionally, debates do not have a huge effect on how people will vote unless one of the candidates makes a huge mistake. However, debates are important because they give voters a chance to not only hear the candidates’ issue positions side by side, but also their tone and message. While I don't think last nights debate will have any real impact on who votes for whom, it did reinforce what type of leadership style voters have to choose from in the next election. 

The Need For Speed?

Today, President Bush announced that the whole world is watching to see if we can act quickly to resolve/contain the U.S. finical crisis. The message he was trying to deliver was not directed at the American public, but at Congress, to act quickly in passing his 700 billion dollar bank bailout proposal. Bush felt that this was necessary as many congressional democrats and a fair number of republicans have questioned the wisdom of the Bush bailout in its current form.    

It is clear that Bush wants to react quickly to this financial crisis, but a key question to consider is whether speed at this juncture creates more problems down the road. In other words, while waiting to take action in the short term main cause additional drops in the stock market, if we take the time to work out a compressive rescue and correction for what went wrong in the financial markets, will we be better off in the long term?    

I am not an economics expert, so it is difficult for me to offer a real analysis of this inherent economic tradeoff. However, from a political standpoint, the current situation is rife with potential political gains and losses. To understand the likely outcome of this situation, it is important to take a look at the different political motivations for several key players: President Bush, congressional democrats, the Republican Party, McCain, and Obama.    

For President Bush, a large part of his legacy as president will be affected by how this economic crisis unfolds. If the crisis leads to another great depression, then regardless of any good he has done in his political career, he will always be remembered as the president who failed to prevent a great depression. President Hoover’s legacy supports this point of view. Hoover was an extremely accomplished public servant before he became president, and he was an immensely popular president until the economic downturn in 1929. The result of his presidency coinciding with the start of the great depression is that his legacy is forever tied to that event.  Thus, beyond any personal conviction Bush has regarding  the best present course of action, from a political motivation stand point, Bush is best served by having a short-term solution rather than a more long-term comprehensive fix.    

Congressional democrats have competing political interests. From one perspective, they should be in favor of a short-term fix because if it temporally rights the economy, they can go back to their districts and say "see I was there to protect you. I saved the economy." However, initial responses by the democratic base have been very negative towards the Bush bail out plan. Thus, if they were to fast track the bill with just an up or down vote with no amendments, they risk being seen as weak to these key supporters.    

In addition, congressional democrats don't want to be seen as obstructionists (because they held up necessary legislation at a critical juncture) or partisan (since conventional wisdom argues that economic downturns favor the party out of power for the presidency), as it could result in an electoral backlash from voters who are hurt by an increasingly worsening economy. A key fact to remember is that even after the election, the new president will not take office till the end of January. If no action at all is taken, a lot could go wrong in those four months. As a result, if we weigh all of these pressures, it appears that the motivation for congressional democrats would be to pass some package to rescue the economy, but likely some altered form of the Bush Plan.    

As for the Republican Party, its motivation is quite similar to that of President Bush. Survey research has shown that up until Carter, the Democrats were consistently rated as more competent in handling the economy. When experts studied this empirical regularity in detail, they found that this opinion was the result of the Republican Party's association with control of the White House at the start of the Great Depression. For voters who lived through the Great Depression, the Republican Party was, in their minds, inextricably linked with economic failure. Thus, the Republican Party should do everything in its power to make sure we do not enter another depression while it holds the presidency. Therefore, republicans should also be in favor of quick action to ensure that the economy doesn't slide into recession or depression while they are in control.    

The last two actors to take a look at are the two presidential candidates. As both are senators, they are both going to have to cast votes on the Bush Plan. This is one of the few opportunities that voters are going to get to see how both candidates act at the same time and at the same level of policy making. Both candidates are running on a message of change. Well, I can almost guarantee that the bail out plan is going to get spun as more of the same in Washington. So the question becomes whether both candidates can take the comprehensive change approach and vote against a simple bailout of the banks and get away with it with their supporters.    

In looking at Obama, he clearly cannot support a simple bailout; that would go against all of the themes of his campaign about reform in Washington. However, he cannot be seen as not working to find a solution for the crisis. The problem for him is that he is not the President of the United States in the senate. Thus, he is just one of 100 and it would be difficult for him to dictate a completely different plan. As a result, it would appear that Obama's best course of action would be to vote against the Bush Plan, but support any modification that provides some regularity reform. This way he can say "I have fought for reform in good and bad times and if you elect me, you will keep seeing reforms coming."   

In the case of McCain, he is in a much tighter spot than Obama. If he is truly a candidate for change, then how can he simply vote for the Bush Plan? He has tried so hard to distance himself from Bush, and there is no way he could cast a “yea” vote for the Bush Plan and win the presidency; in the minds of most voters that would be the same as saying he endorses how Bush has handled the economy for the past eight years.    

However, McCain also could not easily vote for a Democratic Party sponsored bill that calls for reforms and regulations. If he were to sign on to the bill, he would look like a follower of the Democratic Party and a deserter of the Republican Party. In addition, a lot of his support comes from fiscal and small government conservatives who are outraged over the level of government spending and intervention that democratic reform plans for the finical markets call for. As a result, McCain is stuck in a hard position of not being able to support the Bush Plan, but also being equally unlikely to support a democratic reform bill. His best bet is to try to sponsor a bill himself, but in a democratically controlled senate, that is very unlikely to happen.    

Taking all of this analysis together, it seems that the likely outcome of this crisis is that the democratic controlled Congress will write their own bill that incorporates large aspects of the Bush Plan (so that they can move quickly), but that also provides for additional regulation and protections for the taxpayers (thinking more long term). I am not sure this is the best outcome as it may rush the passage of critical reforms for the finical markets, but given the nature of the crisis, it is probably the best-case scenario.   

The Six States To Election Victory

Recent polling that has come out in the last two days has capped off quite an impressive shift in both the national and state polls for the presidential election. In essence all the gains that McCain made after the republican convention have been wiped out and even more impressive, Obama is leading by larger margins in most swing states than he was before either convention. 

While this may cause many democrats to celebrate and republicans to be concerned, this interpretation of the polls is not quite accurate. If one inspects the polls carefully, it is easy to understand why we are seeing such movement in polls trying to project electoral vote counts. 

The first aspect to remember is that the president is not elected by a national popular vote. Thus, national polls that do not control for likely voter location are not incredibly useful in determining likely electoral vote outcomes beyond overarching trends. Since most states are winner take all systems, as soon as a candidate gets 50%+1, all of the extra votes a candidate gets in that state are wasted. So for example, in New York, even though Obama will likely win the state with about 70% of the vote, 19% of this vote is wasted. Thus, when national polling is done, it is hard to weed out this wasted vote effect. In my opinion, national polling is pretty worthless unless you have a candidate up by more than 15 percentage points. 

So, since the president is elected via the electoral collage, when trying to project the outcome of the race, the key statistic to look at is how candidates are doing in individual states. Luckily for us, most polling outfits agree with me and this election marks an unprecedented amount of state polling. 

Before we go to the analysis of the seesawing projections of who is going to win the election, it is important to remember there are 538 electoral votes and that to win the presidency, a candidate needs 270.

So with our electoral math hat on, let's take a look at state polling numbers.  The most striking result is that of the 538 electoral votes, about 459 (or 85%) electoral votes are immovable. These are electoral votes from states that are strong supporters of the respective candidates, and have showed no signs of moving since June, with very high poll numbers in favor of a respective candidate by at least 12 to 15 percentage points. States in this category include NY, CA, TX, AL, GA, etc. When we break down these 459 electoral votes by candidate, we find that Obama has 259 electoral votes, while McCain only has 200. 

This is where things get interesting. The remaining 79 electoral votes are split between only six states: CO-9, FL-27, NM-5, NV-5, OH-20, and VA-13. Every time one of these states moves back and forth between the candidates, it drastically affects who is projected to win the presidency. Hence, the seesawing that we are getting in the polls and projections is not because the nation as a whole is really changing its level of support for the different candidates, but rather, is the result of small movements in these six states where split between support for both candidates is very close. 

The net result of this is to interpret polls that keep showing drastic shifts in the outcome not as drastic shifts in levels of supports for the candidates, but rather as an artifact of how we elect a president in this country.  Very small amounts of support shifting in very few states can have a drastic impact on the outcome, which is what the polls are picking up. Thus, if Obama falls behind by a large margin in a outcome projection, it is not because he has lost vast amounts of support, but rather that a very small number of people in one of the six states has sifted their support. 

This volatility is likely to continue until actual election day because the numbers needed to switch one of these six states to either candidate is around 1-3%. 

Now, an astute mathematician who has been following the math may have noted that based on the safe electoral vote count, Obama is in a much stronger position since he has to win far fewer of the six swing states than McCain does (Obama only needs 11 more electoral votes to get to 270, compared to McCain's 70). I think that this line of reasoning is spot on and is why you have see Obama and Biden shifting away somewhat from their 50 state strategy to focusing on these six key states in this critical period of the election. For those that want to know the current break down in these six states, Obama leads in NM and CO, while McCain leads in VA, OH, FL, and NV. Under that scenario, Obama would win with 271 electoral votes. 

Let's Play a Word Association Game

The continued bad news from the financial markets has clearly shoved the economy into the limelight as one of, if not the key issue in this election. Many pundits believe that this has the potential to shift the race in Obama’s favor. I happen to agree with this sentiment, but it is important to understand why; the reasoning is not as simple as it may seem.   

The traditional logic of the economy and presidents is that since the president is the only nationally elected official, he is held (rightly or wrongly) accountable for the overall wellbeing of the national economy. In many ways, the president is kind of like a quarterback in football: when things go right he gets too much credit, and when things go wrong he gets too much blame. The key fact to remember is that while a president is a critical player in the health of the economy, he is still only a single person among many other players in the game. Thus, he can make all the right choices and still get stuck with the blame for other players’ poor performance.   

Rather then trying to actually assess how much blame we should attribute to the Bush administration for the current economic crisis versus mistakes made by key finical institutions, it is more important to examine how the current set of events is likely to be interpreted by likely voters in November. Intuition may suggest that if people are personally feeling the pinch of a bad economy (i.e. they suddenly have less in their purses or wallets than they did previously), they should hold the party in power of the presidency responsible and vote for the opposing party’s candidate.    

However, most reputable research disputes this theory. Rather than voting based on ones own economic situation, the vast majority of voters tend to vote based on what they perceive as the general condition of the economy as a whole. This raises several important questions regarding the current election.   

The first is that for the first time in the history of the United States, most adults have some stake in the stock market. Either as a result of personal stocks or retirement funds, peoples’ well-being is much more closely tied to the welfare of the stock market than ever before. The result is that even if the overall fundamentals of the economy are strong, if people perceive that the overall stock market is in crisis, then the nation is in a national economic crisis. Thus, using the same logic as before, if people perceive a national crisis in the stock market, which I think most currently do, they will likely vote democrat in November.   

The second aspect that is unique to this financial market crisis situation is that in some ways the republicans are guilty of their own image success. In terms of associations, if you asked most people which party they associate with big business or Wall Street, they will say republicans. Thus, even though the Republican Party is not probably directly responsible for the current finical situation, republicans are guilty via association.   

If this association theory is correct, then all Obama should have to do to win on this key issue is to hammer on this association and pose the question “who you would rather have clean up this mess: the people who are in bed with big business or an outsider who knows what is right?”  

The third aspect to take note of is that in terms of the abilities of the candidates, McCain will be hard pressed to win an election that is based on the economy. McCain’s best chance of winning this election is to keep the agenda on national security, experience, and social conservative issues. He has almost no experience with economic issues and his age, race, income (via his wife), and own statements on the economy all make him ill suited to play the understanding white knight to the rescue.   

This is not to imply that Obama would actually do a better job at attempting to resolve the situation. That question will largely be the result of what kind of economic teams are put in place by the respective candidates. But actual chance of success is much less important in the economic arena of politics than association with ability. On this count, Obama is clearly far out ahead of McCain. 

Back To The Future

The Iowa caucuses not only marked the beginning of this election season, but also ushered in what was to become the theme of the election: Change. In Iowa, all the candidates from both parties saw that the two candidates that campaigned on a message of change did incredibly well (Obama and Huckabee).

Since then, the theme of change has remained a constant in the campaign. Obama has stayed with his message of "Change We Can Believe In," while McCain has attempted several different change themes prior to the republican convention (remember "The Change You Deserve" back in May).

After the convention, an interesting development occurred. Somehow Obama lost control of the theme of Change. All of a sudden McCain was all about Change. He had taken what Obama had been saying, and started campaigning as the Maverick team that could bring change to Washington. Instead of trying to come up with an original theme he simply used the media spot light of the republican convention and flatly stated, as if no one had ever thought of this idea before, that he was the candidate for change.

What happend next was quite surprising, it caught on. All of a sudden McCain, who remember is from the party who has controlled the presidency for the last eight years, as well as the House and Senate for the first six of those eight years, was the Change man. It appears to me that he was able to pull off this transformation because the base of the republican party has never embraced him (and in fact still haven't--remember they really only got on board once Palin was on the ticket), so he was able to sell himself to moderate republicans (and perhaps independent leaning republicans) that he is different than the last eight years. He can bring Change. Not the Change the democrats want, but he can bring a different kind of republican control to Washington.

With such a high level of success on the overarching theme of Change, McCain started very slowly to adopt a lot of the exact same language that Obama has been using over the last year. If you examine McCain's speeches post convention with Obama's remarks, there is no mistaking that McCain has become somewhat of a mimic or echo of Obama.

McCain has been able to pull of his copy cat nature of Obama's messages, in essence by using the same language and ideas, but in slightly different patterns and cadences. The result has been quite remarkable in the short term. McCain's national and swing state polls have shot way up. This development however has clearly made many Obama supporters quite angry. The claim is that McCain has usurped Obama's issues and is a charlatan or a wolf in sheep's clothing.

What is interesting is that this is not the first time the strategy of co-opting your opponent's popular ideas and messages as your own has occurred in a presidential race and it is not even the first time it has been done by a republican presidential candidate.

Issue and message co-option was the bread and butter of the republican party in presidential elections of most of the 1930s and 1940s. The most famous example is probably the election of 1948, in which the republican party took Truman's entire campaign platform and passed it through congress during the election in an effort to take the issues away from Truman.

The good news for Obama, is that in each historical case when the republican party attempted to take a democratic platform as their own they have lost the election in November. The historical argument for why this is the case is that in the end, issue co-opting by a rival candidate signals to the voting public that there are really only one set of options for moving forward. So when forced with a choice, why would you choose the imitator over the real Mccoy?

What has generally happened is that while issue co-optation can cause short term excitement by the partisans of the candidate that co-opted the issue, because there is no previous record of the candidate having such a position the candidate cannot make a credible commitment to actually carrying through on the co-opted issues once elected. Thus, faced with a choice between candidates that are saying the same thing, voters choice the candidate who is more likely to actually carry out those issues as promised.

As a result, issue co-option helps with popularity in the short term, because the issues themselves garner attention, but in the long term, results in the original candidate being elected. Of course there is no way to know for sure if the same will happen in this election. It is up to Obama to ensure that he remains the authentic choice by showing that McCain is merely echoing his ideas. But it cannot be denied that Obama has history on his side in this development.

Why Tell a Lie?

Today may mark the first and only time in history that Karl Rove and I agree on something. In a recent interview with Fox News, Rove stated that "McCain has gone in some of his ads one step too far...and sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100 percent truth test."    

I find several aspects of this development quite interesting. First, let me put it in writing that I do agree with Rove. Several recent ads that have been put out by McCain have been quite nasty and border on actual slander.    

A recent example is an ad, released in areas with high latino populations, that stated that Obama voted against immigration reform and was instrumental in stalling the creation of any guest worker program or a path to citizenship. The problem with this ad, of course, is that Obama and McCain actually worked together on this bill, each voting to end the filibuster in the senate; in fact, they voted identically on the procedural and final passage votes.    

All political ads lie to some extent, and to pretend that Obama hasn't produced negative ads either would be a mischaracterization. However, Obama has not been foolish enough to create an ad that states a lie that can easily be verified and shown to be untrue. What is more startling, however, is when one examines where the nastiest attack ads are being run, it is pretty clear that the demographic groups that are being targeted are those containing individuals who are statistically on the lower end of the income and education scales.    

This tactic is about as low as it gets as it amounts to directly lying to confuse people who will not be able to gather complete information about the candidates due to limitations regarding time, resources, and language ability. Candidates launch such attacks because they can be very effective since these voters are not constantly tuning in to see what is occurring in the campaign, and reserach has shown that first impressions of a candidate are very important in deciding who to vote for among voters with lesser educations.    

The decision to go negative is not a surprise, but the manner in which is has occurred is highly questionable. It raises questions about McCain's ethics that I myself would not have thought possible. It is clear though that the straight-talking express has broken down.    

I think it is silly to argue that campaigns should always be positive; that’s not how the world works, and it isn't how campaigns are won. We may all hate negative ads, but they are really effective. I don't deplore McCain's choice to go negative, but the degree to which he has done so has the potential to backfire in a big way. 

Is the Tide Turning?

Quick post tonight, as with Hurricane Ike going full force there is not much election coverage.  Over the last few days an interesting set of events has been set in motion that may set the stage for a poll reversal this week. 

The first is that, unlike the relatively unsubstantiated attacks that were leveled at Palin, the media has actually started to find cracks in the Palin armor that cannot be whisked away. Neither crack is that large, but both highlight an odd trend on the McCain/Palin ticket: to lie about information that can easily be fact checked. 

One, claimed earlier in the week, is that Palin had visited Alaska troops in Iraq. This has been disproved quite easily by the media, who got access to her travel record. Another is her claim that she brought in both republican and democrats to work in the executive branch in Alaska when she was elected Governor. The New York Times is reporting that this claim is false and that the appointment and civil service records show otherwise.

The other event is that the Obama campaign has learned that it needs to stop going after Palin, as it makes her an issue. Instead they have returned to attacking McCain. In my opinion this is the correct course of action. Palin appears vastly more popular than McCain. Obama's best bet is remind voters that they aren't voting for Palin, but McCain. In addition, McCain has a much longer record to defend, which clearly shows it is hard for him to be a candidate for change. Remember, before Palin came on the ticket, people were not excited about McCain. This is probably still true and Obama needs to remind them who is running for president on the republican side.

Lastly, as a poll update, the numbers still look terrible for Obama in both national polls and key swing states. We still have a long time to go, but if we don't start to see some halting to the McCain gains in swing states by the end of the week it may be time to start getting concerned. 

Together Forever?

Parting ways can be difficult, which would be one explanation for why McCain and Palin are still campaigning together now that the convention is behind us. That explanation would be wrong, but it makes for a nice lead in for today’s post.   

Traditionally, after the conventions, the newly foraged party candidates for President and Vice President head off and do about 3-4 days of heavy campaigning together. After that, they bid each other ado and separate. The logic in separating is that two people can cover far more ground than a single person, and since a party ticket is usually designed to appeal to different types of voters, the splitting of the two candidates allows each to go and campaign separately to court these voters. It is not unusual for the ticket-mates to meet back together for large events, big fundraises, or meet for rallies in swing states, but generally each will spend the month of September campaigning alone.   

Obama and Biden have followed this traditional form to the letter. After the convention, the two drew huge crowds at several joint events and have since separated to court voters individually.  Since separating, Obama and Biden have done several big events together, but by and large they have been keeping separate travel schedules, events, and hotels.   

Over on the republican side, the original plan coming out of the convention was for something very similar for McCain and Palin. They would do a few events together and then separate to hit their respective bases of support. However, this has not occurred. Rather, they have repeatedly added joint events and have not really separated yet (take today’s joint campaign stop in northern VA).   

The pundits have noticed this occurrence, but have attributed it to the fact that when McCain was campaigning alone before the convention, he was pulling crowds in the 100s, whereas after the convention, he and Palin together have been attracting thousands. Thus, the two have not split yet because they want to ride the wave.   

While there is clearly merit in this explanation, I have trouble with it because logically it doesn’t make sense. It is not the fact that they are campaigning together that is drawing larger crowds, but that the republican convention really energized republicans. So whereas the support for McCain was luke-warm before the convention, that indifferent sentiment has been completely replaced by an air of excitement and enthusiasm.   

Now some will claim that if Palin wasn’t with him, he wouldn’t get the crowds. So what? If Palin is the reason they are getting crowds, then her campaigning on her own would still pull the large crowds and McCain could be working a different, if smaller, group of people at the same time. To me, the republicans’ strategy here makes no sense if the explanation is to ride the Palin wave to bigger crowds for McCain.

However, there are two alternative hypotheses that do explain why the republicans have not yet shifted to the split campaigning. The first is that the McCain staff is very afraid that if they separate, Palin will pull more people to her events than McCain will to his. Such an event would clearly be covered in the media and make McCain look weak. Obviously, the VP candidate should not pull more than the boss.   

The second alternative hypothesis is that the McCain camp is afraid to have Palin campaign by herself on the national stage at this point. It is clear that she can be very powerful when she is protected and in a controlled environment, but if she is on her own at her own events, the McCain campaign will have little control over what she says or how she answers questions.   

In both cases, these alternative hypotheses are good news for Obama. The longer McCain and Palin campaign together, the more ground they will lose as Obama and Biden each individually reach out to voters. Plus, McCain and Palin will have to separate at some point, and in terms of having something embarrassing happen, the farther it is from November 4th, the better off it will be for the campaign that makes the mistake.     

Today's Polls and Campaign Strategy

Not much has really happened campaign-wise today. I should note, however, that we are starting to see a lot more robust polling that is showing a nice convention bounce for McCain. Tuesday's numbers should be interesting, but as they currently stand in the national polls, Obama is holding on to a narrow lead of about an 1-3 points if we take an average of all major polls. 

What is more interesting and probably more important is the swing state polls, which have not really showed a convention bounce. So far, I have seen reliable polls for about half of the swing states. When we look at the swing state polls, we see that we are almost exactly where we were at the start of August. If this trend was to hold up, Obama would have approximately 305 electoral votes. As I have said before, Tuesday's numbers will be the most telling, but so far what I am seeing seems to indicate that the conventions essentially canceled each other out. 

The next big event will be the first presidential debate on September 26, 2008, which will be held at the University of Mississippi. This debate will be moderated by Jim Lehrer and will focus on foreign policy and national security. Between now and then I don't expect to many planned fireworks from either campaign. However, both campaigns will clearly be hard at work in swing states trying to win voters. 

What is interesting is that this election marks the first time that Democrats are stealing a page out of the Karl Rove playbook. We hear constantly on the news that independents will decide the election. In 2000 however, Karl Rove argued that republicans could win the election by getting conservatives, who don't normally follow politics, out to the polls (this was also a claim first made by Barry Goldwater in his unsuccessful 1964 presidential bid versus LBJ). Rove's argument was forget the middle and win without them by getting people who normally don't vote, but are on the right side of the political scale, to vote for republicans. While it can be argued whether or not this strategy works (remember Bush actually lost the popular vote in 2000), it was used again in 2004, which saw perhaps the most sophisticated voter mobilization program by republicans in the history of elections. 

While democrats are clearly not conceding the middle, Obama has already used Rove's strategy during the primary. Obama built his constituency based on two subgroups on the left that traditionally have low turnout: Young People (18-29) and African Americans. Had these two groups not come out in droves, exit polling shows that Hillary would have had the nomination by Super Tuesday. Obama's level of success in November will, in large part, be contingent upon his ability to expand, as he did in the primary, the size of the voting left. 

What is interesting to note is that both candidates are using the Rove strategy, but in slightly different ways. On the democratic side, Obama is the part of the ticket that is trying to enlarge the base, while Biden should appeal to the more moderate part of the party and independents. On the republican side it is just the opposite; McCain is working the moderate side of the party with Palin working the base. 

In my opinion,  this election is not going to be decided by independents. This is because I think they are by and large going to be split between McCain and Obama. In the end, whoever can get the most nontraditional voters to the polls will win this election. Given Obama's unbelievable ground campaign, and McCain's total lack of field offices in most key states, I think the edge has to go to Obama for now. 

Republican Contradictions

McCain praises himself as a maverick who bucks his party, the democrats, and the "Washington" establishment even though he has been a part of the Republican and Washington establishment for over two decades. While his Maverick title may have made sense in 2000, in the last eight years, McCain has not only been a loyal member of the Bush Republican party, but in many way he defined it. In his acceptance speech for his party nomination for president of the United States he spoke openly of his experiences during Vietnam to highlight how he realized how is maverick tendencies had got him in trouble. Yet this is the very quality he seeks to demonstrate to the American people as necessary to bring "real change" to Washington.

It appears that the the McCain strategy is that Americans should vote for him because we can trust him because he represents "real" change. He, a Washington insider for over 20 years, makes his platform on virtually all of the same policies that Republican's have run on for decades and claims that he and his party can reform Washington from the people who created a mess in Washington - which is those very same people and those very same policies.

For the past six months McCain's campaign has been harping on the lack of experience as the reason why Obama is unqualified to be president. Yet McCain decided to pick a running mate with little to no experience. His campaign has pointed out that Obama had no executive experience and highlighted the almost two years Palin has as a Governor. Some Republicans have even stated she has more executive experience than Biden as he has only served in the Senate, overlooking the fact that this would mean she also has more experience than McCain, who has also only held office in the Senate. According to Palin and the McCain campaign they are going to change Washington, yet she is unwilling or unable to participate in an interview and discuss exactly what her and McCain's plans are for the country beyond generic rhetoric.

The biggest contradiction, as it appeared to me during his speech, was John McCain's accusation of Democrats as the "me first, country second crowd". Yet at the same time he asks for more tax cuts, despite a large national debt and an overstrecthed military, among other economic issues (and the argument for tax cuts is not based on economics but on fairness). According to an analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, which analysed both Obama's and McCain's tax proposals, McCain's tax proposal leaves little relief for working class Americans in terms of after tax income compared to those in the highest marginal incomes.


A majority of the money that would be spent on the tax cuts (around 51%) would go to those in the $65,000 to $139,000 income range. However, the primary benefactors of after tax income increases will be the upper middle class and the upper class - the top one fifth would get the largest percentage increase in income at over 6% and the top one percent would get nearly a 10% increase, while those in the lowest income range would recieve a less than 1% increase in after tax income and the next two income brackets recieve around a 3% increase respectively. To put this in perpsective, according the U.S Census Bureau the current income quintiles (fifths) range as follows: Botttom 1/5th $0-$20,300, 2/5th $20,300-$39,100, 3/5 $39,100-$62,000, 4/5th $62,000-$100,000, top 5/5th $100,000 and over, top 5% (top 1/20th) $177,000 and over.

The Tax Policy Center fairly points out that neither candidates plan would create significant increases in economic growth without either spending cuts or, more suprisingly, tax increases (probably assuming greater government expenditures and a lower deficit level). What appears as a contradiction to me is the idea that those who benefit the most from our system of government and society would claim to put the country first, but then demand that they pay less for the benefits they have recieved (and a lowering of their tax burden corresponds to an increased tax burden on the lower and middle classes which are the backbone of both the workforce and the military).

Much of my criticism may be unfair and the result of personal bias, but if McCain and Palin would put out some specific and concete policy porposals rather than running on slogans and rhetoric intended to inflame passions (it inflames as much passion on the left as it does the right, so the benefit of their strategy may be dubious) it would be possible to make a fairer assesment of what a McCain-Palin administration would be like and their campaign would not seem so full of contradictions.